Thursday, February 19, 2009

Recently RBI seems to have sent guidelines to all banks in India that are issuing credit cards to add additional security measures for online and telephone transactions. Currently most of the online transactions using credit cards require only the card number, expiry, name, address and CVV (printed on the back of the card) –  other than address all these information are printed in the card itself. So it is easy for any shop keeper (say in a restaurant where you send your card away from your sight) to copy all these details and use it a fraudulent transaction online. Now RBI will be prescribing that from August 2009 all online credit card transactions will require in to provide additional verification data which is not visible in the card.

Certainly a welcome move from RBI. And probably a pioneering move that central banks around the world will be watching carefully to emulate.

 
Wednesday, February 18, 2009

In a recent issue of BusinessWeek I came across this article in which Mr.Paco Underhill author of “Why we buy?” talks about Retail store guidelines. He makes few observations which I found to be very interesting:

1. Shoppers use the area just inside a store’s entrance as a decompression zone. They won’t notice signs put there.

2. Americans naturally turn right as they walk further into a store (Which means I guess Indian’s will turn left)

3. Customers respond best when employees greet them about a minute after they enter. (I will welcome this as more often than not I find it intrusive when I see a person greeting right at the door)

4. Some customers can’t deal with choices. Merchants needs to put up signs that says “Our Best Seller” or “Our Best Student computer” or the likes. (Certainly I will appreciate it)

5. Unlike good times, now when shoppers purchase they spend 20% more time in aisles.

6. He says people more often make decisions about what to buy when they’re out shopping, not before. (True with me 50%)

 
Monday, February 16, 2009

You can’t stop marvelling at the lack of speed in which the Indian Finance Ministry operates. It has taken 5 Years, change of a finance minister, a global recession for the finance ministry in India to start to “look” into this issue. About 5 years back Mr.P.Chidambaram as then Finance Minister cancelled the exemption given to Exporters from paying “Service Tax” on input services (which amounts at current rate @12.36%) that were rendered towards manufacturing/rendering an item/service that will get exported out of the country. The idea being you can only export a service/item not the tax of the originating country with it and to prevent India from becoming non-competitive compared to its neighbours. Instead of the exemption the Hon’ble minister announced Exporters can claim a refund (which in India means pleasing the bureaucracy & adding infinite delays) for the service tax they will pay, this the minister said was to prevent leakages and misuse of the benefit. In India “Refunds” or for that matter any policy announcements (other than the written law) are mere intentions and are like “Poll” promises – they will always be kept as a promise by then finance minister and his successors. Keeping up this tradition, there has been no clear announcement or notification on the procedure and the forms to be used for this refund claim. For last several years at my company, we have asked every Service Tax & Excise Tax official we have met for the procedure we need to follow to get the refund, every one has said anything but a consistent answer.

Hence, I was surprised Today to see some movement on this with this article in Economic Times Newspaper - “Faster Service Tax refunds on cards”. With today’s budget turning out to be a disappointment (it read more like UPA government poll propaganda) for Indian Inc. and Exporters in particular at least if the FinMin can do this refund notification quickly, it will give us some relief in these testing times.

 
Monday, February 09, 2009

With news coming in everyday of all major industries in India slowing down from their historic levels of growth in the last few years, everyone in business (including me) is losing our sleep over the state of our businesses and the economy in general. Real-Estate, Cement, Auto, IT, Retail, Travel - all have slowed down in the recent months. No Amount of Liquidity infused by Government/RBI have been able to make banks lend (or) companies to borrow and expand.

With this background, I thought the record monies (spent by owners and sponsors) spent on last year's IPL will come down to ground-level (what everyone will call sustainable) this year. In fact, I thought the whole sheen associated with IPL (as a matter of fact, I loved the games last year) will be down this year due to the overall slowing economy - people will be worried about their jobs, companies will be worried about liquidity and market rather than to sponsor. All these fears have been put to rest for now (we still don't know how the public will receive IPL this year) with the all time high prices paid by team owners for the players in last week's auction in Goa. See the chart below, US$1.55 Million was paid each by Bangalore and Chennai team owners - wow!

IPL Season 2 Auctions Top winners

If at all this kicks off overall consumer demand and market confidence, it will be great. [Come on, this is my blog and who say's I can't think wishfully here]

 
Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Early this month I travelled to Hong Kong while returning from USA. When I converted my money to Hong Kong Dollars to spend locally, I noticed they had a difference. Unlike currency notes of other countries say India, US or UK which are issued by Central Banks of those countries, the Hong Kong currency notes seems to be issued by authorized private banks like Standard Chartered, Bank of China, HSBC and others. All these are legal tenders in Hong Kong.

HONG KONG DOLLAR CURRENCIES

 
Sunday, November 23, 2008

National Do Not Call Registry India

Like everyone else I get unsolicited unsolicited calls on my mobile phone. What is more irritating is when you are already a customer with the bank that is calling - they don't even check whether someone is their customer or not, instead they randomly call numbers. To communicate our displeasure with this, if we decide to switch banks, it is not so easy to do. And almost all private banks and insurance companies in India seems to be doing this, so you will not be able to find a company that doesn't. I bank mostly with Public Sector banks but for some convenience like Web Banking, Credit Cards and ATM I bank with a private bank. As consumers we need a remedy to this problem.

About a year or so back, TRAI introduced the National Do Not Call Registry (NDNC Registry). Telemarketers are needed by law to check with the NDNC database before making a call or face a penalty. You can register in NDNC by sending a SMS with text "START DND" to 1909 or register in your Mobile Service Provider's website (for me it will be Vodafone). Apart from TRAI's NDNC Registry, RBI recommended about 3 years for all Banks under it to have an individual DNC registry with them, you can register in each of them by going to their respective websites. I have registered myself in all of these sites, after registering the number of calls I get have certainly come down. If you still get calls you can complain to the callers that they are violating law by calling a DNC number.

Last week on a single day I got two marketing calls from ICICI Bank and one call from ABN Amro. Irritated I was looking for a remedy, I found a page in ICICI website to complain if you keep getting calls even after registering. I emailed to the id donotcall at icicibank.com that was in the page quoting the time, my mobile number and the phone numbers from which I got the call. I added in the email that if I continued to get calls I will seek remedy by lodging a complaint to RBI Ombudsman and TRAI consumer cell. I was not hopeful of any reply, but I was pleasantly surprised to get a reply within 2 days from ICICI stating that they have taken note of my complaint, apologized and assured that I will not get any further calls. I was certainly impressed by this service from ICICI and I hope other banks will follow this good practice.

 
Friday, October 17, 2008

Today Indian Stock exchange lost its recovery from earlier the week to below 10,000 and closing at 4-digit marks. I was curious on how this journey was, so I downloaded the data for last 10-years from Yahoo! India finance and plotted the below chart. It was interesting to see:

  • It took nearly 2 years for it to climb from 10,000 (7/Feb/2006) to 20,000 (26/Dec/2007)
  • The downward from 20,000 (15/Jan/2008) to below 10,000 (17/Oct/2008) was over 9 months 
  • Ten years before from today SENSEX was at just 2848.11 (16/Oct/1998) which is still 3.5 times from today's value

BSE SENSEX

 
Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Courtesy: The Economic Times 24 September 2008

I was surprised by the first page of Economic Times newspaper today. First there was no colour it was all Black, then the headlines. For about 15 to 20  minutes I was left scratching my head trying to make sense of the headlines I was reading and re-reading.

The headlines were:

- Sensex hits year's low at 2832 points (I even checked the latest stock market figures in TV after reading this)

- Now, pay your bills via ATM (haven't this feature been there for years now? )

- Infosys income rises 115% to Rs.98.43 cr (Something was wrong here, they do more than that figure in a week now)

- Incoming calls are now free and Rs.4 /min for outgoing calls (This is when I started becoming suspicious)

- Crude Near $10 (Now I know for sure this is a prank, looking up the mast-head I saw the date as September 1998)

It turned out to be a prank by Economic Times to "Commemorate 10 years of the Economic Times Awards" and the great journey Indian Inc. has made in the last 10 years. Very nice work by ET, kudos to their team who imagined and pulled off this coup.

 
Tuesday, September 09, 2008

More than 70% of Indian IT Exports are to United States and exports outside of United States as well are mostly priced in US Dollars (USD). So the movement of USD with respect to Indian Rupee (INR) is of paramount importance to the industry. The economical concept at play here is very simple, gains made by USD are better for us - we get to make more Rupees per Dollar of revenue. In other words we favour INR to depreciate. This is directly opposite to what the Indian Government and other importers will desire - as for every dollar they import they have to pay more Rupee. Government is the largest importer especially of Oil which is mostly priced in Dollars.

Unlike the bigger players in the Industry, SME companies like Vishwak have little room to maneuver to get end customer prices (marked in USD) increased, most of the time our contract prices are negotiated a year in advance. We can improve productivity and reduce operational costs, but their impact is limited to few percentage points, nowhere near the 10% swing that has happened in the last one year in Dollar value. Till about few months we were worried due to strengthening of Rupee, but in the last two quarters the trend reversed. Today the Dollar hit a high note of Rs. 44.89, compared to Rs.40.63 exactly a year before - exactly a 10% swing the other way. One of the financial instruments available for exporters is Forward contract (Hedging).

Forward Contract: It is a contract between the bank and its customers in which the exchange/conversion of currencies would take place at a future date at a rate of exchange agreed in advance under a contract. The essential idea of entering into a forward contract is to peg the price and thereby avoid the price risk.
Forward Rates = spot rate +/- premium/discount

RBI allows you to take these forward contracts for next 12 months (sliding window). Like many other SMEs at Vishwak we normally cover say 60-70% of our receivables for next 12 months. This has been helping us when the Dollar kept depreciating like it did for the first half of this year and whole of last year. But since the trend reversed in the last two quarters we have started losing nearly Rs.4 per dollar (10%) - of course this risk was always there just like in any other financial instruments. Our Hedging taken last year (in July/August '07 for July '08 and so on) for this financial year (Apr '08 to Mar '09) has been at various levels around Rs.39 to Rs.41, but the current rate is Rs.44.89.

This made me interested to dig into this a little deeper, so I headed to RBI's archive site and pulled out last 13 months data and plotted it into a chart in Excel (you can download the excel sheet I prepared from here). Below is the chart - you can see clearly the wild swings of Dollar.

Dollar Movements - Source: http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/ReferenceRateArchive.aspx

I noticed the following few points of interest from the above chart:

  1. Dollar made a decline from Rs.41.24 to Rs.39.91 between 29/Aug/07 to 20/Sep/07. Nearly Rs.1.33 change.
  2. Continued to stay in the band of Rs.39 for next 7 months till 23/Apr/08
  3. Dollar made a rise from Rs.39.95 to Rs.42.56 between 23/Apr/08 to 26/May/08. Nearly Rs.2.61 change.
  4. Dollar made a rapid rise from Rs.42.82 to Rs.44.21 in just 15 days between 14/Aug/08 to 01/Sep/08. Nearly Rs.1.39 change.
  5. Dollar continues to rise with hitting a high note at Rs.44.89 today
 
Wednesday, July 23, 2008

If you are following US Business news you would have read about Starbucks closing over 600 of their stores around USA. I am wondering on what took them so long to do it.

For instance every time I visit Seattle (their headquarters) I am puzzled on how come Starbucks have nearly half-a-dozen stores in the downtown area around WA State convention Center. Aand all of them in walking distance to one another. In one of the streets for every block they have a Starbucks store. Naturally each of their store will eat into their other stores - if it is carpet bombing strategy against competition, I don't find it impressive.

Here is the full list of stores that they are closing.

 
Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Recently I received a report on the vision of Tamilnadu Government for how the business climate should be in year 2025 in the state. The report was a joint work by CII (Confederation of Indian Industries) and Tamilnadu Government (TN Gov). 

tamilnadu-state-industry-in

I saw one interesting statistics that stood out among the report's many pages. It was the number of days it takes to start a business in Tamilnadu (to a large extend it is same across India) - it is currently a whooping "41" days. I was not surprised, since I run my own business for last 10 years and have been through these hurdles of bureaucracy many times.

Most recently I had to do this (starting a business) once more, this time for my family business and it took me nearly 5 to 6 weeks. At this time we still we have VAT registration pending. To be fair, few days out of this was due to my end delays as well.

  1. We started with registering the new "Private Limited" (Limited Liability Company)  with Registrar of Companies (RoC). For this the first step is to get name clearance (name of the company shouldn't be conflicting with the said/unsaid guidelines or with other existing businesses). This took some time.
  2. Then comes the actual registration which involved multiple iterations of submission of our MoA and AoA (Memorandum of Articles and Article of Association). Each time we had to take a print, sign the paper, scan it, then digitally sign it and then upload it as a PDF file to the site. Once approved, you need to follow this by a hard-copy submission(sometimes they may ask for the hard-copy for each iteration as well) of the documents.  Once this is done.
  3. First board meeting and resolutions to be passed
  4. Followed by getting an Income Tax PAN Number
  5. Then comes opening of a Bank Account
  6. Then comes applying for Service Tax Number or TIN (Tamilnadu VAT Number) and CST (Central Sales Tax). The choice between Service Tax and Sales Tax registration is depending on the nature of your business.

After all this only you can start your functioning. There will be more steps if you are involved in manufacturing, which depending on the industry has various other registration formalities. Compare all this is the time it took to open a business in USA - we opened our 100% subsidiary sitting from India in less than few days through the help of a CPA locally in India - everything happened through online. I remember reading that New Zealand, Canada and Australia with USA tops for the shortest days required to open a business. For information on doing businesses around the world, see this world bank funded site.

With the above experience I should say it is definitely commendable of Tamilnadu Government to even dream a "2" day timescale for this by 2025.

 
Tuesday, June 24, 2008

According to Taxman in India, from 1st June 2008 (after this year Union Budget was passed) a licensed software like Adobe Photoshop or Microsoft Office is both a Service and a Product. While world over taxes are being simplified, streamlined and modernized keeping pace to technology - in India our Finance Ministry has proven its fondness for complicating existing laws and getting into legal word tangles. This is in spite of record tax collections in the last few years, this year TDS (with holding tax) collection were up by a whopping 60% from last year. 

While change of classification of software may seem insignificant it has real impact on the tax that a consumer/business is charged while buying a software package. Earlier all Packaged Software/License were treated as a sale of product and charged VAT @ 4% to 12% (varied by state). Now all software are treated as a services as well. It is not reclassified from Product to Service but classified to be both - strange is India's tax laws!. The industry is suffering for the last few weeks with all major dealers and distributors waiting for some clarity from government as this change will result in a tax of 24% on licensed (legal) software, which is absurd. In India Service Tax is Central (Federal) subject, VAT is State subject - so both don't want to clarify this situation.

This week I couldn't buy a software that I needed because of this issue. My regular dealer refused to give me a quotation for few products that I wanted because of this legal mess. He said in his 25 years of being in the business this is the first time he has stopped billing for over 3 weeks. What is even more strange is that none of the software industry bodies are vocally raising this issue to the government - may be they feel the government has no ears to serious issues like these, they are busy listening to the daily threats from the left parties :-)

 
Wednesday, June 04, 2008

After much deliberation and delay, Govt. Of India has increased the retail fuel prices - Rs.5 for Petrol, Rs.3 for Diesel and Rs.50 for Household LPG. Though delayed for long we need to praise the Prime Minister for finally biting the bullet - especially with all the political compulsions of coalition politics he has and for getting the powerful finance ministry to agree for deep tax and duty cuts.

On the other side, I am wondering why Government has to be involved in fixing the price of retail fuel. Other than Household LPG, the fuel price should be left to free market. Just like anything else the fuel price has to be determined purely on demand and supply economics. With Oil prices at record levels of $135 from levels of $30 before 4 years, retail price have to naturally increase. You cannot make Oil Marketing companies loss over Rs.200,000 Crores and make the common shareholders in those companies suffer (Disclaimer: As on date I have no investments in ONGC, IOC, BPCL or HPCL). It doesn't make any sense to buy oil at ever increasing prices and keep selling it at loss, eventually sinking the Oil companies. Leaving it without a price increase the loss would have been ultimately burdened on the miniscule compliant Tax payers in India. Somehow political parties in India are of opinion that increase in taxes affects only the rich and any burden on them is allowed - if you keep doing that, there will be no investments by companies and eventually no new jobs.

There is other side to the need to increase the prices and that is Environment. India is consuming Oil at historic levels that definitely has significant green house effects. The logical answer according to me is to increase the fuel price even more so that people feel the pinch and start reducing their consumption; and government can use the increased income to build on war footing world-class mass transport facilities in all cities.

 
Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Small and Medium Sized IT Companies (including Vishwak) in India have been enjoying Government of India Tax break under 10A scheme (managed by STPI) where by for their investments on new plant and machineries they get a 10 year Income Tax holiday. Few years back the government set the sunset for the tax break as 31st March 2009. The idea was to encourage movement in to the new China like SEZ (Special Economic Zones) where by more investments and job creations will be done. Unfortunately the SEZ Promoters are only selling spaces in them to large IT companies - the minimum you can buy is 100,000 sq. feet which is way above for any SME to afford. So this was perceived by many industry bodies as an anti-SME move. On top of this, in the last 12-18 months Rupee has been appreciating against the US Dollars by over 10-12% literally wiping off the margins for SMEs. Lastly the Finance Minister in his last budget imposed a 10% (approx) MAT (Minimum Alternate Tax) as well. So the industry was looking forward for the FM to extend some support in the budget but he didn't do it. But on the request of the IT Ministry and PM Office, the FM has yesterday announced for the extension of the STPI (Software Technology Parks of India) scheme for another 1 year till 31st March 2009. This certainly is a welcome move and I thank the Government for the same.

Now it is the turn of the industry to use the extension time to become self sustained by increasing productivity and introducing innovation, they should stop looking for perennial tax breaks.

 
Friday, April 04, 2008

One of the concerns for everyone in the Indian IT Industry - for both the insiders and the (abroad) customers are the rising cost of man power. In the last 3 to 4 years (Indian Financial Years Apr-Mar) the industry has grown tremendously. All the 3 Indian IT majors have joined the billion dollar club, continued to double there revenue every year and are now multi-billion corporations. All of them are close to having over 100,000 employees. They have been joined closely by Tier 2 IT companies as well in the multi-billion dollar club and many of them have over 50,000 employees with them. This is formidable human resource capital but they don't come cheap, this unprecedented growth has been pushing the salary further to unsustainable levels.

Further more, for Indian IT services firms nearly 50% (it ranges from 40%-60% depending on the size and offshore/onshore mix) of their revenue is spent in salary and related expenses. Only in few other industries, a single raw material* costs nearly 50% of the revenue. Certainly no other industry (may be Oil and Steel in recent years) have seen its raw materials* cost increase over 30% year on year. So far the Industry have been able to cope with this in several ways - productivity gains, fresh resource augmentations, training, process/tool improvements and more but this certainly gives sleepless nights to CEOs including myself. I strongly believe whether it is stock market, economy in general or salaries, all of them cannot defy gravity for long and keep growing upwards. Indian Stock market which sky rocketed with its BSE Sensex hitting 21,000+ few months back is now trading at 15,000 levels. All goes through cycles of ups and downs; bearish days are also good for the economy in the long run. In Australia conservationist welcome forest fires because they burn the outer layers of the trees which fall down and add nutrients to the soil. In the long run this helps the soil to remain fertile and nurture new life. This is nothing new, it has been happening this way there for millions of years.

Am I forecasting doom days here? - Certainly No. Tough days - Definitely Yes. There are several indicators for this trend. First is the obvious US Slowdown (and a short recession), second is the Indian Rupee to Dollar appreciation, Third is the increasing cost of raw materials and the lower margins - gone are the days of hefty profit margins in IT industry. All these have started to show their impact - news are trickling in of delayed joining dates for campus hires by the IT Majors (at this time this sounds more as rumours to me) and if slowing down in the rate of lateral hires/job market. The best indication I follow for sensing Chennai's Job market is "The Hindu" newspapers Wednesday Opportunities supplement - this week I hardly saw 1 or 2 IT related openings. Normally you see here several full page and half-a-page advertisements by all popular IT brands.

What are the consequences of this:

  • First, it will separate boys from men (girls from ladies). The "me too" players will get killed and consolidation will happen in the industry, which is good for any industry to mature
  • For the 3 Indian Majors this will mean little, it is likely to be business as usual. The senior teams there would have easily seen this coming for several quarters and they certainly had time to fine tune there strategies
  • It will be difficult for Tier 2 companies who are aspiring to get into the elite league as their growth rates will slow down
  • For small and emerging companies tough days are certainly ahead. There will be churn but the blood-bath may be limited and short
  • Niche players depending on their offerings and geographies have better chances of surviving this and also growing a little due to easier talent access and lesser competition.<Shameless plug begin> This includes companies like mine "Vishwak". We are focused on Media Industry and have been investing heavily on the Indian domestic market for last few years. We are witnessing good growth on both these areas and our investments in Indian market are starting to paying off . Here first mover advantage give us significant head start along with our better understanding of the market<end>

I know this can start a lively debate here and I welcome it, please start posting your comments, observations and thoughts.

*I prefer calling them as Human Assets but that will give a different financial meaning in this context, so let us have them as raw materials here

 
Thursday, March 27, 2008

There was a news item today that India has decided to adopt a new accounting system (IRFS) by 2011. IRFS is presently adopted by over 109 countries including China. I was curious on this move, found two references on the Internet to understand this.

1) Accounting in a global world

2) Debits & Credits of IFRS

This is what I understood: Just like how Technology standards and Protocols are vital for the Interconnected world of Internet to work together, it is equally important in globalized world today to have a common way to report financial's of companies around the world. Without such a standard it brings in huge disparity in disclosure thus creating loopholes to hide facts. All of this affects investor confidence and long term sustenance of the global economy. In short, it is a welcome move provided our government enacts all necessary law framework without delay.

 
Saturday, March 01, 2008

In my earlier post I have given my guess list. My list was correct by more than 3/4th.

What happened from my list:

  • FM had done nothing for Dollar hit export industry including IT
  • Increase in Defence spending
  • Dividend tax was tweaked
  • Income tax exemptions increased by good percentages
  • 6th Pay commission was accepted
  • Farm credits /benefits were announced

What didn't happen from my list:

  • Service tax rates were not changed (Good)
  • A new committee for simplification didn't happen (Good, we have had enough committees)

The points I liked about the budget:

  • Promised allocation for Minimum Work / Employment schemes
  • Pushing the states for more accountability on central funded projects
  • Drinking water availability in all villages and in all schools in India
  • Allocation of over Rs.200 Crores for Chennai's Desalination plant
  • Service tax for Customized Software (though I don't like the tax, it at least put an end to all arbitration on whether it is applicable or not)
  • No change in corporate tax rate (Good)
 
Thursday, February 28, 2008

Like his previous 4 budgets Mr.P.Chidambaram has taken this year too considerable efforts in listening to the public & Industry on their wish list for India Budget 2008. Like previous years this year too he will stop with listening and the budget will be a political compulsion/election oriented one. Following are my guesses on what he will do tomorrow:

  • Some marginal concessions for Rupee/Dollar Hit export industry will be announced, only for the worst affected like Textile, Leather & accessories
  • The biggest wish of the IT Industry, the extension of STPI scheme beyond 2009 will not be done. If mentioned, it will just say the decision is being left to the next government
  • The duties and customs will be brought down and aligned with commitments given by the government to ASEAN and other trade pacts
  • Income Tax rates will be left untouched. The minimum income level will be increased, some more exemptions for senior citizens & women will be given
  • He will certainly promise setting up a new committee to simplify direct/indirect taxes to take advantage of the buoyant collections this year
  • Service Tax will be increased by 2% (or) Educational Surcharge will be increased by additional 1% and it will be promised for further infrastructure/power developments/oil under recovery
  • Implementation of 6th Pay commission which might give over 25% hike to government employees salaries and benefits. Possibly removal of new hiring restrictions in selective departments
  • Increase the budget allocation for Defence especially the Nuclear & Missile programmes
  • New farm oriented credit announcements will be made
  • Dividend tax will be tweaked a bit to appease the stock market
 
Friday, February 15, 2008

I don't know whether any other country in the world (just kidding, it is not as if I am an expert on Budgets around the world just felt good saying it) has its budget strewn in such mystery and secrecy like the Indian Budget. In today's Globalized world the role of a central budget has diminished over the years which certainly is good. In my view a Central (a.k.a. Federal for those of you who are from USA) Budget should be more of a report card recording the performance of the government spend in the last 12 months and the outlook for next 12 months. The way Indian Budget has become over the years and is expected to function by common people, as the platform for all ministries and the entire governments policy announcements. This has made the Finance Ministry the nodal point and hence the single biggest bottleneck of every government departments functions. If you ask what is the alternative, it is to let each ministry on a regular basis announce its plan for next 12 months after consultation with respective industry bodies. This can be much like the way the commerce ministry does its EXIM policy but with more teeth and power to each ministry to do its job better than what it is today.

The Indian Budget Process

Anyway coming back to the topic, I read this good pictorial workflow of how the Indian Budget process happens in LiveMint. It has some surprises like the key people in budget preparation are locked in the basement of North Block for the last 7 days and the only people allowed to see from outside world is the Finance Minister!. Good Read.

 
Friday, January 11, 2008

Every Indian Engineer was made to feel proud yesterday. The event was unveiling of Tata Motors dream project the world's first Rs.1 Lakh (USD 2500) car - Tata Nano. When first talked about 4 years by Mr.Ratan Tata noone believed it to be possible that too by an Indian company. Thanks to the ingenuity and hard work of Indian Engineers it was made possible and demonstrated yesterday. From being an under-dog in the world's automobile scene, India overnight has graduated itself to the premium club of the GMs & Toyotas. With this Tata's have made themselves more than qualified to be the future owners of Jaquar & Land Rover.

I found it heartening to see the congratulatory message from Anand Mahindra, managing director for Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors’ primary competitor “I think it’s a moment of history and I’m delighted an Indian company is leading the way”

Tata Nano - Rs.1 Lakh car

 
Friday, January 04, 2008

Reliance Mr.Anil Ambani It was exciting to see the Indian economy growing closer to becoming a mature economy. My random thoughts below on the subject as a novice.

You should give credit to the brothers (Mukesh and Anil) because in the last 2 years after their split-up it is amazing the amount of wealth they have created for themselves and their shareholders. The overall market capitalization of Reliance Industries and ADAG after the split-up is multiple times of the value when they were as one single unit. So it is not surprising if you are wondering like me whether the whole story of differences between the brothers and the split-up episode was orchestrated. Anyway it is, the split-up seems to be only for the good and has made all the stakeholders more wealthier and happier.

Today Reliance Power announced their IPO which they are claiming on TV to be India's largest public offering. The IPO opens on January 15 and closes on January 18 in the price band of Rs.405-450/share. They have announced incentive for individual investors by the flexibility to pay say Rs.110 or so while applying and the balance within 21 days from the date of allotment and a 5% discount. You can read the full news here.

 
Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Being in the IT Industry you can feel the energy of growth, innovation and excitement that's in India now. You can relate the present scene to the one that was there a decade back when IT professionals were rushing to United States and India suffered a brain drain (as it used to be called). Now the scene is completely the reverse where you are seeing many of those professionals returning back to India. They have had time to enjoy the western lifestyle, save some money and return back to India which was unheard of few years back. I personally know few of my friends at least who have returned from their high-paying/senior profile jobs in companies like Siebel, Microsoft, etc. in the last few years to India. In this connection I saw this Video in Hindustantimes that quantifies this to be about 60,000 Indian IT professionals who have moved back to India in last few years.

Moreover, nowadays people in the mid to senior roles don't want to leave their family behind and want to go to USA - they are getting salaries in India itself that are attractive and comparable.

 
Thursday, October 11, 2007

This is sensational at the same time scary. As the saying goes "the higher you go, the harder the fall ". India's Stock market index today closed just 150 points short of the 19,000 mark. This is happened within few days of it crossing 18,000 and few weeks after crossing 17,000 mark. Though the fundamentals of the Indian Economy now is doing good, I am not sure it can handle so much money coming in so fast. Now any bad news that can affect the sentiment of the investors either internally like fall of this government or externally, will likely to trigger a huge fall. Such a fall can wipe out few hundred thousand millions in days and push into a burst. This scene is not very different in other Asian markets, everywhere fund is pouring.

On top this, Rupee is appreciating day by day. From Rs.44 a year back it has reached Rs.39.5 and is heading quickly to Rs.38. This is making Indian Products (whether it is Leather, Garment, ITES and to lesser extend Software) unviable in abroad markets. And Central government is merrily encouraging the rise, as it helps them to buy oil with lesser rupee. We can't also blame the government has their Left coalition partner are giving them no room to increase the Petrol Prices, inspite of oil is at an all time high of $85 per barrel.

One thing is certain - for everyone in business and money markets, challenging times are ahead soon.

 
Monday, September 17, 2007

June 2007 issue of IEEE Spectrum carried a comprehensive report on growth of Megacities. It talked about the pollution levels being highest in Karachi (Pakistan) followed by shamefully New Delhi (India), world urban population to constitute 60% of world population by 2030. London - New York has the highest international Internet Connection at around 387Gb/s.

The report also talks about Sao Paulo's complex bus system, building a green city in China, Unseen City below New York in the Subways, Earthquake warnings in Japan & Tata Power in Mumbai.

Newyork City Subway cross section. Copyright IEEE Spectrum

I realized so much we don't know about our cities.

 
Monday, September 17, 2007

Venkatarangan with NASA Astronauts in Las Vegas Madame Tusads This post is more of my thinking than a finite point on the present world economic achievements.

If you stop and think about what has been achieved in the last 10-15 years in Economy and Wealth Creation, it is amazing on any parameter you take. Whether it is China with a Trillion Dollar Foreign Exchange reserve, World's large corporation Market Cap (Google, Citi, WalMart) of each over several hundred Billion Dollars, Governments Trade Surpluses, Indian Government Direct Taxes Growth of over 60%, Worldwide sustained economic growth for last 5 years even though Oil is selling at record high of $70+ per barrel - on any account what has been achieved now is unprecedented in the modern history.   

There are several complex happenings that have enabled this including Globalization. Being an Engineer and Software person, I would like to think it is because of Computers and Internet revolution (When I say Computers I do include Mobile Phones as well). Think about any task in modern research/science, business, life, medicine, banking/finance - there is no task that is not influenced by Computers and Internet. 

It can range:

  • From preparing a thesis for a PhD, where you can research papers from around the world (which would have been impossible to do  2 decades back at this cost and time)  and hence stand on other giants shoulders
  • Exchange real-time data and do complex calculations for fundamental research including DNA analysis
  • Access to best written courseware and training materials used for Education
  • Access to world wide economic trends
  • Learning from Management best practices and mistakes from around the world

and so on... In all these (and you can add hundreds of more items) Computers and Internet have touched and improved productivity at every facet of our present day life.

Do you have a say on this, leave your comments.

 
Tuesday, August 28, 2007

In India we often observe Mediocrity everywhere. It is deep rooted, right from Office Assistants to Politicians. Other than in Education, we are often satisfied with Average performance. That's why we still hear grandfather's talking of how things were punctual and better under British rule 60 years back - how Trains ran on time, etc. I was reminded of this topic today when I read this article in LiveMint that has brought made this observation nicely.

I am optimist and I certainly see things improving, especially with globalization and more awareness to world wide events.

 
Thursday, August 02, 2007

TiE Chennai usually brings practitioners & champions of Entrepreneurship to speak about their story in its monthly sessions. Recently it brought out one such session (29/06/2007) by the 2003 women entrepreneur of the Year Ms. Hemu Ramaiah, CEO of Landmark.

Hemu Ramaiah, who needs little introduction, shared her truly inspirational entrepreneurial journey especially the challenges & triumphs in setting up one of the leading and famous bookstores in India - LANDMARK. I have recorded my notes taken during the session as a PDF document here (352.53 KB)

 
Thursday, July 12, 2007

In the last 3 to 4 months, Indian Exporters are loosing sleep due to Rupee Strengthening by over 10% in a quarter. Though certainly in the long run it is good for the country to let Rupee appreciate - such a speedy appreciation is affecting all exporters. In software exports, this clearly wipes out nearly 50% of the profit (assuming the average of 20% profit in Indian Software services industry).  I feel government is using this as an effective and probably only (non-controversial for Left parties) tool they have in controlling inflation. I believe it is up to individual exporters to device their own startegies to tackle, right from using tools like Hedging (which will help in short run from further appreciation) and to increase the rates and diversifying markets. All these are easily said but for small and tiny exporters especially for Non-IT exporters it can be very difficult and a matter of survival. 

Yesterday Infosys Q1 FY '08 results proves that the problem is serious enough. Though their revene have grown by 7.5%  in Dollar Terms; the revenue in Rupee terms has remained constant around Rs.3500 crores.

In this connection, instead of saying more I would like to refer you to this superb interview with Mr.Lakshmi Narayanan (Vice-Chairman of CTS). No one could have said it better. And that's what I admire about Mr.Lakshmi Narayanan, his ability to see the issue not only from the biggies perspective but from the entire industry's spectrum. Read the interview in PDF format: "Rising Rupee a Blessing for China"

Just when I was about to post this, I saw a story on governments relief package, I am yet to study it so I will talk about it in a later post.

 
Monday, July 09, 2007

Recently eWeek carried an article Offshoring 2.0: The Post-India World - "Experts agree that India will soon no longer be the biggest offshoring center". I found the article to be baseless, shallow and far from truth. With the world economy (and Indian economy) growing for last 3 years at a stretch, many people want to stand away from the crowd and become instant doom sayers. It is sad eWeek wants to join the bandwagon of Prophets of Doom.

The article doesn't name the experts who say it is doomed or the studies other than the one by its sister organization IDC on a study of cities worldwide. Let me substantiate my views with our experience in Vishwak.

The article talks about increase in salaries as a primary (and only) reason for this, so let me take that up first:

  1. Faster career growth - No doubt the Salary in India is increasing day by day. We have seen our salary outflow doubling in the last 24-36 months (this is apart from our Team Strength Increase). Just this raw data can be very misleading here and you can easily portray doom from this. Dig deeper and you will find this. We have found our people to be more ambitious than in the past, taken up more responsibility and grown up in their career. So we have been able to get better billing rates for the same person, obviously you don't want Person "A" to keep earning the same money for the company year on year. You want it to increase. This is more than productivity increase I am talking here, I am talking about a Software Engineer, becoming a Module Lead, Project Lead, Project Manager and so on. Here Indian IT companies have mastered the balance between career growth to technology training and hands on experience. It has taken Indian IT companies more than 2 decades to reach here. I doubt whether China or Vietnam or East Europe can come to this level instantly. No doubt one day they will come here, but it will take them atleast 5 to 10 years and by then Indian IT companies would have leap-frogged to the next level.
  2. About a decade back when offshoring started from western countries to India it was primarily cost arbitrage of 1:10. Today it is not 1:10, but still significant and at many cases still at 1:3 or 1:4 levels. Senior level people salaries have certainly narrowed with US levels, but still there is a 1:3 or at least 1:2 advantage to India. Entry level salaries in India have grown but even now they are not even closer to US figures. Taking the minimum wage in many US states at $10 per hour, still there exists a cost advantage at a minimum of 1:2 levels to India's advantage and obviously software engineers in US get many times more than $10 per hour. Only graduates from IIT & IIM you will find higher salaries and clearly they are exceptions as they are premium across the world.

Next comes the productivity, process advantages:

  1. Don't forget the complexity and scale of projects Indian companies are handling. Most of the CMM Level 5 and CMMI companies are based in India and compare that with East Europe and China, it will speak for itself. Just like China having the worlds largest manufacturing units, India has some of the largest Software Engineering campuses. Imagine where else in the world you can get thousands of software engineers in a day, get them organized into teams and start working - all the infrastructure, process, learnings for doing this is available only in India. In the last decade probably Silicon Valley had this, but now undoubtedly it is India. And again this has taken Indian companies a minimum of 2 decades to achieve this far.
  2. Software writing is not all about English language, though it is a huge requirement. It is about Creativity and Lateral thinking. I am not saying that all Engineers who graduate in India or who join IT work force in India have it. But India has the highest percentage of these people, again this has been the result of 2 decades of work to come here.
  3. I am sure Indian IT companies are already investing big monies more than their counterparts across the world on developing Automation and Code Generators, which will give them the advantage of solving problems using lesser human labour. I am only saying lesser and not about eliminating manual work altogether which may not happen in distant future.
  4. Last comes the political stability that Democracy brings in (India is the world's largest Democracy that is proven to work for last 60 years) and the Law of Land (Intellectual Property protection) that Indian Judiciary brings in (though it is very slow compared to western countries).


Related links:

 
Saturday, July 07, 2007

Economic Times newspaper today carried couple of interesting facts about Mobile usage in India:

  1. Mobile VAS (Value Added Service) business in India is poised to touch Rs.8,200 crores this fiscal - a 65% growth from Rs.4,950 crores in previous year. This reinforces our believe on the huge demand for Mobile Content Management.
  2. India has 9.27 Million PC Internet Subscribers, against 31.3 Million users who access Internet through their Mobile devices. One out of every five mobile users (165.1 Million Mobile Subscribers) access Internet from their phones.  
  3. For the first time in recent Telcom history in India, ARPU is growing but currently the growth is happening only in CDMA operators. So there seems to be some hope at the end of the tunnel for Telcos.

Reading this, I remembered an Interview I gave few years back "Mobile Phones will be the First and Only Computer for Many in Developing Countries".

 
Monday, July 02, 2007

I feel someone in Civil Aviation Ministry is reading my blog posts on Airports or I am just lucky. Eitherways so far it has been only for the better.

Airports *Taken during my trip to Australia in 2002*

Few months back I posted an idea on developing Puducherry Airport and boom few weeks later government is considering it. I talked about improving connectivity to green field Airports and now it seems Civil Aviation Ministry is considering a plan to do high speed rail links. The trains will run from city centre to the respective airports at 160-180 kmph, will allow city check-in. They are considering 10 ten major cities in the country to have this facility. But the cost looks staggering, just for Delhi Connaught Place to Delhi Airport (a project in piepline) will cost Rs.3,200 crores. This was reported in 30/Jul/07 Economic Times Page 13 of Chennai edition (I couldn't find the story online).

 
Saturday, June 16, 2007

The photo has nothing to do with this post. Just from my travel album to York, UKI don't know what happened, may be it is due to the hard work (or hands off approach) done by Laloo (Hon'ble Railway Minister), Railway Stations are nowadays much cleaner and better looking. It was more than a year or two, I travelled by Indian trains. Last month I went with my family to Tirunelveli from Egmore for a co-worker's marriage. I found Egmore exceptionally clean for an Indian Railways Station, fitted with Elevators, Well Lit signs for each coach, packaged water & usable toilets. Even in stations in between, the coffee/tea were served by making it just in time - hot milk from a thermo flask with Tea Bags or Coffee; impressive.

Indian Railways - Please keep up the good job and the pace, you have miles to go... Millions of Indians need you more than ever and you have a duty to serve them better, they have been putting up your bad service for 100 years now. I always believed Privatization is the best way for Indian Railways (Just like UK) but these small efforts are giving me hopes, we can live through the time till privatization. Each year, during budget session I am left wondering on why Indian Railways (Public Sector Company) still needs to present its separate budget in front of the parliament. Though it employs Millions of People (so does many other Public Sector Companies) it doesn't warrant a separate budget in parliament and make it a big political event. It will be better to spin it off like BSNL or ONGC or IOC, etc.

I have a suggesion for Indian Railways on a big revenue opportunity. This will be to introduce Air Conditioned  Clean Trains in the Metro cities. These need not be separate Delhi Metro like efforts, it can be in the existing rail lines and stations but with new spanky trains but on lesser frequency and premium priced. 

 
Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Though I was thinking about this for sometime, I didn't feel like posting this till today. Today I had a general discussion with a colleague on the extremely low cost (sometimes free) pricing model of Air Deccan and other LCCs (Low Cost Carriers) in India. I don't fully agree on the extend of price cutting done, which definitely is below cost and is non-sustainable for the long-term. At the same time I feel you cannot term the whole business model unvaiable. If the same approach of low pricing was to be done by groups with deep pockets like Reliance, Tata or UB, then it will be seen by media as a bold step and a big strategy. Just because it is done Air Deccan, it is being criticized heavily.

Anyways, for these LCCs to succeed the approach has to be different in India. Unfortunately every carrier is targetting and falling over each other for the big six metros, instead it will be wise to go after Tier-II / Tier -III cities. This is more like the approach Wal-Mart in its founding years choose to do - go after towns with less than 10,000 people, which eventually makes them circle completely big cities without getting into them. Also in many cases, though the tickets are sold at few hundred rupees or even Zero (free by Air Deccan) it costs more than Rs.1500 for the consumer because of the huge Taxes. India doesn't have a Low Cost Airport like Singapore has for LCCs .

The problem for the carriers certainly is a lack of necessary Airport infrastructure in the non-metro cities. But here, I see a big oppurtunity for them. The plan should be to start tens of mini-airports in private or in partnership with Government. Each of these Airport should be situated in Tier-III towns or certainly not inside a Tier-II/Tier-I city.  The Airports themselves can be extremely small, handling the smallest commercially viable planes and should cost few hundred crores (as low as say Rs.100 Crores). Government can help by giving the non-agro lands on lease and the airports can be on a BOT (Build Operate Transfer) model. For a country as big as India, where it takes 2 to 3 days to travel by Train/over a week by road from North to South (or East to West) this will produce tremendous movement of labour and oppurtunities.

As an example, consider this. Instead of building a new Airport for Chennai, it can be build on Pondicherry. The new Airport can handle mainly International traffic and Airlines should be charged considerably less (or Zero Tax like in a SEZ) to land in Pondy than in Chennai Airport. This way consumer will get a choice, it should cost few thousand rupees cheaper if I choose to land in Pondy. As a consumer I will go for it, because it just takes just 2 to 3 hours and few hundred rupees to travel from Pondy to Chennai - which I won't mind for the savings I got. Hypothetically consider the venue instead of Pondy to be the temple town - Tirupathi. Airlines can offer a package deal of Lord Balaji's Darshan plus flying, they can even advertise with the slogan "Pray and Fly" (Pun Intended).

15th June 2007 Update: I am surprised that my wish for a Puduchery (Pondicherry) Airport is coming true with in weeks - though not for international flights but Pondy Govt has decided to give land to AAI to make it operational and expand a domestic airport.  

 
Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Recently I read in Economic Times this article about a forrester report. The report said over 60 per cent captive centres in India are struggling and this trend would further accelerate the move favouring third-party outsourced vendors by 2009. Running a outsourced IT services firm this is a topic of significance and interest to me, I have lot to say, but I will try and keep this post brief. 

In the early 1900s the trend was to do everything yourself to ensure quality, classic example for this was Rockefeller's Standard Oil, India's Tata and others world wide. They didn't have much of choice to do it any other way as well. Rest of the industry (eco-system) didn't exist or was not yet ready. In the late 1990's the trend with Jack Welch in GE and Louis Gerstner with IBM was to focus on your core competence and outsource everything else. This helped cutting costs certainly but more than that freed management focus and time to do what the company was all about in its core. This is why Indian IT companies are successful and I believe will help them to retain their edge.

 
Thursday, April 26, 2007

Sometime back I had posted about President ABJ Abdul Kalam's recommending to give Bandwidth free just like how Governments today provide basic Road Infrastructure free. I didn't expect Government and Politicians to take note of this. Surprise!

The suggestion seems to be noticed and government of india is planning to give broadband free by 2009. This is certainly a very welcome move and when it happens will certainly give a big boost to economy.

 
Saturday, April 21, 2007

Internet has fundamantely changed the way people get free (as in freedom) access information and news. Before Internet, governments around the world could stop control access to their individual benefits. But with Internet it all changed, even in countries with protective regimes you can access Internet freely to a large extend. Many governments around the world tried to block sites and failed to a large extend. I personally believe other than Terrorist and Illegal sites, there should be no ban on any other sites. In the long run it is good for people in power too, to allow free flow of information.  

I wanted to do this post on seeing a news article today in MSN India that "Indian IT ministry refuses to ban websites". Sensible move. What ever is the reasoning behind this, I think this validates the power of Indian Democracy and freedom of speech here.

 
Tuesday, April 10, 2007

I feel myself very divided on this subject. As an Indian Citizen, I feel I shouldn't be criticizing or commenting on other countries immigration policies - more so on American Immigration Policies.

I generally subscribe to the idea that you like what they offer go for it, you don't like it then don't go. This is for many reasons one of them being - Nearly a decade back when I applied for the first time a US B1 visa I felt bad about standing in line from pre-dawn till evening in front of American Consulate in Chennai. Then in one of my trips to UK, I met a second generation Indian - a UK Citizen who is doing extremely well and working for a leading MNC bank there in their investment division. He says that whenever his work takes him to India, he has to go through the ordeal of getting an Indian visa and how the officials in Indian Embassy there are not helpful at all. I am sure people don't queue in front of Indian Embassies, but neverthless it showed that my own country's immigration policies and procedures may not be all that great too. Each country has its own problems, compulsions and reasonings.

On the other hand, I feel America should be more welcoming in their immigration policy (At Vishwak we have our own subsidiary in USA we have an interest on the H1 and immigration rules). Last year the overall H1 limit of 65,000 applications got exhaused around May 3rd week. This year on the opening day of April 2nd itself over 150,000 applications have been received. It is surprising that the country which was formed on the basis of freedom and welcoming people to immigrate now has a limit on the number of most-skilled and intelligent people from around the world who can come in to their country. In this regard I found the recent "Economist" article titled "America's useless immigration system" to be well-written on this subject. Reading that is when I decided to write this post.

 
Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Mr.P.Chidambaram (PC) made his budget presentation today. Nowadays, the importance and impact of an Union Budget has dimished - neverthless still relevant. It is a good thing that the role of a budget is reducing, indicating stability in government's finance policy. I feel government should do even less tinkering on tax rates and handle allocations for tough problems like Poverty, Primary Education, Health & Defense and they should concentrate on widening the tax net, increase compliance and more important simplify processes.

Like many other business owners and India Inc, I was eager to see what new damage he is planning to cause like two years back with FBT. In this budget today, his intentions seem to be laudable, his promises on Agriculture, improving Infrastrucutre & Secondary education. I just hope he puts them into action.

Though in his budget speech he seemed to be helping SME (Small and Medium Businesses), he has successfuly managed to hide the real negative impacts to them. Like my auditor says, Mr.PC is an expert in creating ambiguity in tax laws by introducing new laws but just by removing commas and full-stops in existing text. After Mr.PC is a professional lawyer.

Though he has given some concessions to small units like the exemption of Service Tax to companies with turnover from 4 to 8 lakhs, he has increased the cess by 1% - which he claims to be spent on Secondary education, which I am happy to pay and hope he spends it fruitfully, introduced FBT to ESOPs (again with no clarity), increase in Dividend tax.

The notable good item in the budget is the introduction of tax holiday for budget hotels in NCR which is a welcome proposal for travel industry. Considering in India, how expensive hotel rooms are, especially in Mumbai and Bangalore Finance Minister should have extended it for entire country. But may be he wanted to reward only Delhi because it was ruled by Congress!. To understand how bad hotel rooms are in Mumbai, the typical Five Star property is US$450+ - the world's premier Seven Star properties in Las Vegas, didn't cost me more than US$200 during Mix '06 last year.

Need for tax sops:

In principal, I agree that no tax exemption should be eternal. But in the case of the sunset clause of the Tax Holiday for software exports in 2009, I beg to differ with the government for not reconsidering it. With this tax holiday the Indian industry, especially the SMEs were helped in their formative years to plough back the money as capital investments. In my experience for over a decade now, I have never been able to raise capital from any nationalized banks or government schemes in India without collateral exceeding the loan value. Compare this with China where capital is realtively easier to get and so many tax breaks and government supports are available.

Another reason to support SMEs is that they  make the bulk of Indian Software Exports and provide the majority of Employment. They also provide employment in Semi-Urban areas and makes the rural educated fit for employment by biggies after gaining experience.

But minister seems to differ and seem to ignore the IT SMEs, may be because the SMEs though thousands in number have no "Political Capital" or "Media reach".  

To understand this, let us see two issues:

1. Minister has decided to punish the indutry with MAT (Minimum Alternate Tax) of 11.33%. This will hardly affect biggies - for example for Infosys which is paying effectively 16.33% or so, MAT makes no difference as to them. But consider for a SME (and that too a new entrant) it is a difference between 0% tax to 11.33%. MAT is a big blow to SME, who are already struggling with Appreciating Rupee, Inflation and the rising cost of talent. All these three problems affect biggies as well, but they have the instruments due to their sheer size which SMEs don't have.

2. The 100% Tax Exemption elapsing in 2009, government says relocate to SEZs. I don't understand which SME has the capital to pay the Sky-High prices for space in SEZs. Again for biggies this is not a problem, they can afford the space requirements, investments needed for a SEZ, but SMEs cannot. Let me be clear I am not saying there should be no tax for SME or special consideration needs to be given to SME, but all I am saying is to provide an uniform playing field. Give a tax holiday to all new units for at least first 5 years to stabilize, don't give the holiday only SEZs which only the biggies can afford. Clearly with scrapping of STP and having only SEZ act it is not a level playing field.

Finally, considering that todays budget could have been worse, I am happy it is not that bad. Though I feel Finance Minister has wasted a golden oppurtunity to do bold steps, especially with India growing at its best and Tax collections at record high. All said he should be congratulated for having managed it so far, with the huge political compulsions he is facing with the left parties, the defeat from recent state elections and inflation.

Footnote: Not only because I am owner of a SME IT company, but I sincerely believe IT Industry will never go fully the Automobile way and be truly consolidated. Today worldwide Auto industry comprises about a dozen companies. Though M & As will continue to happen in IT Industry, Software being a Human Resource intensive and Knowledge innovations cannot be manufactured in a factory floor model - I belive Software will always have niche players competing hand-to-hand with biggies worldwide.

 
Sunday, December 17, 2006

T.Nagar Talk (a local paper) today carried a piece about Centre for Social and Economic Justice. This Organizations runs a site creditcardvictims.org for helping consumers for their rights with credit card companies. The site offers some good advice on smart usage of credit card. Though sites like this are common in the USA, even the popular TV Show Oprah has a website on this - but in India, this is a new effort.

Read my earlier post on Credit Card Regulations in India. Last week I had a good experience - for official use I had bought 3 mobile phones on a same day from one shop with my Citibank card. I got a call with in few hours from Citibank Service Center in Gurgaon verifying whether I did the transactions. This is what I call "Good Service" and protecting consumer interests.

 
Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Nowadays the telemarketing calls from Banks, Insurance Companies and Telco's at all times in your mobiles are becoming worser; All of us are very familiar with this menace, so I will just talk about two quotes here and then a possible remedy :-)

Few weeks I got an automated RingTone marketing call from Airtel in my landline and the stupid call doesn't end even if I disconnect that too on a Sunday Afternoon. Last 2 days I am getting calls from CitiBank selling Credit Card, the irony is I am already a Gold Card customer with them. Today my wife answered the call politely, but I interrupted and answered the way I saw was fit - in the call the agent asks me if I refer anyone else, what a stupid question I wonder do I have no other job other than referring customers to them.

After these incidents I spent good amount of time recently in searching the Internet for Don't Call Registries of major Indian banks and listed my name in that. For your benefit the list is reproduced here, please list yourself there. I suppose the recent RBI warning has been the reason for these webpages to be made available.

Don't Call / Do not Disturb webpages of Banks in India

For a similar list containing Telco's, check this The Hindu Article on Rejecting SPAMs. For Insurance company's I am yet to find this service in their websites - if you know about them, please post it in the comments section below.

 
Saturday, November 04, 2006

About two years back in this IEEE Spectrum Article ("Lighting Up the Andes") I read about how a Canadian couple is lighting up remote villages in Bolivia (South America) using white LEDs & solar panels. Mission was simple, to free remote communities from reliance on costly kerosene lighting. Solution was to have LEDs - Light Emitting Diodes, the tiny bulb like thing that you see in your electronic devices and Traffic Signals. The LEDs were powered through simple Solar Cell Panels. The beauty about their scheme is that they devised a small volunteer operation that blends tourism and charity.


(Courtesy: IEEE Spectrum)

I was touched for their thought for their technology innovation as well (read the full article here). The operation, called Luxtreks, has now installed lighting systems in Bolivia, Guatemala, Peru, and Pakistan without taking a dime of government money.

I missed to blog about it then, but was reminded this week when my uncle gave me a book "How to Change the World". 

 
Friday, October 13, 2006

Yesterday when I heard the news that Aptech has bought a majority stake in Synergetics, I was happy for the promoters. Synergetics is a mumbai based training company offering advanced programs in .NET. One of the founders of the company is a good friend of mine Sanjay Vyas - a dedicated trainer who is known in Microsoft technology circles for his brilliance on C/C++/COM/C# expertise. 

The existing board will continue to run the company and I wish them all the best in the years to come. Having a strategic investor like Aptech is going to help the founders in improving the business and removes them the trouble of cash flows and risk taking.

 
Wednesday, June 28, 2006

One of the leaders in IT I enjoy listening to is Mr.Lakshmi Narayan (President & CEO of Cognizant). It was probably 3 years back that I got a chance first to listen to one and since then I won't miss a chance to attend any time I get one. Today just now I returned from one of his speeches as part of TiE Chennai Forum, and as usual he was brilliant. What I like about this man, is his down to earth style in all aspects - in his speech, vocabulary, thoughts, dress; everything is simple, dignified and no bit of artificialness that a CEO of a US$1Billion company will aquire without his own knowledge. And when he answered questions he doesn't pretend to be "the choosen one" to succeed in the business; nor he tried to portray that right from the start he and other founders with him knew what they want, how to go, a clear road-map or stratergy.

In my opinion, in real life you can only go with the flow of things, and when oppurtunities come you pick them up, make right and wrong choices decisions, keep going. What matters is to continue going and not stand still - because life is all about good and bad; planned and unplanned. Because of the stereotype image that Media and Management Books portray, we thing that successful people and hugely successful companies like Google, Microsoft knew it all when they started and they are exceptions. In reality, it is not so. It is just that successful companies, keep themself agile, keep working hard, continue doing things, learn from right and wrong things they do and always try to improve things, be paranoid all the time and finally put the "Organization" in front of any single individual. Because one thing that can kill any company is "Complacency" or "Idol" worship.

 

 
Friday, April 21, 2006

I was watching now in Star World "Oprah's Debt Diet" show. Though targeted towards America's Shopping and Credit Card Addicts, I felt it was very relevant to India and other Asian markets which are growing in Credit Card usage. Many people I know don't know about Credit Card charges and interest rates.

The show and the related website gives lot of useful and easy steps, like the one I use most of the month (when I can) - I pay always more than my monthly due for my credit cards. This way I use my cards more as a Debit Card and the reason I use my credit card like the "Citibank Jet Airways VISA Card" is more for the JP Frequent Flyer miles I get out of it.

 

 
Saturday, January 14, 2006

According to TRAI (India's Telecom Regulator) recent announcement India's mobile subscriber base now stands at 76 Million. I am not sure how they arrive this figure - do they account each PrePaid card as one user (or) a minimum number of days of prepaid user (or) how they handle inactive post paid connections?. Anyways this is an impressive stride considering the fact that 1/3rd (27 million) of this users have been added in last 12 months - with this about 7% of India's population have a Mobile Phone. The fixed line (which was been around for 100 years+) pales in comparison to this at 49 million.

This places India at Sixth position - China tops it now at 398 Million. India will be at second Position by 2010.  

Mobile phones growth is already showing significant impact in Indian economy. In Agriculture/Farm industry traditionaly in developing/poor countries like India the main problem was lack of access to timely and accurate Information. This Information can be about latest weather, natural disaster warnings, crop trends, market price for crops in surrounding areas, best practices including Insurance coverage, loans and more. Basically bulk of the population was denied information or it was too expensive to reach to them. Mobile phones are making a sea change in this.

I believe it will take years (or decades) for PCs to reach to every corner of India - Fear not, Mobile phones will fill that void and they are already doing it more rapidly than what we realize. Post your comments and experiences on this below.

 

 
Thursday, January 12, 2006

Following RBI's recent guidelines (few months back) many of the major Credit Card Issuing Banks in India seems to be getting their house in order.

I noticed it first with ICICI Bank - with in few weeks from the RBI announcement, I saw in ICICI website a link to post mobile number in their DNR (Don't Call Registry). I immediately went and registered my number - Thanks heavens finally I will be spared from their calls. As of today no such link in Indian websites of either Citibank or Standard Chartered - may be MNC bank's need more convincing about RBI's powers or more time to simply get this done!.

In my recent CC statement from Standard Chartered, for the first time I noticed a detailed & clear explanation about thier various charges / interest / late fees. Today I received a similar hand out from ICICI (ICICI-CC.pdf 879 KB)

Discussing Credit Cards and ICICI - two weeks I had a pleasant experience with ICICI. Some 4 months back I bought a electronic item from EBay India and paid with my ICICI Card. The very next day I received an email from eBay saying that the seller is no longer valid and all transactions with that seller is void. I was surprised to see the amount charged to my card. On calling eBay, they said I got to sort this out with the seller - and the seller claimed for last 4 months he has reversed the money. I called ICICI to check whether the reversal had happened, but they offered to help, refer it to their grievance cell and get their help to get this sorted out. Immediately I faxed a letter to them and copied eBay India - with in few days eBay told me the amount is reversed and my recent ICICI statement showing it as a "Disputed Transaction" reversal. I puzzled on why it is showing with this description, but my money is back!

 

 
Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Thank you Reserve Bank of India (RBI, which is the US Fed equivalent of Government of India)

RBI yesterday issued its final guidelines on credit cards, to all Banks and NBFC's (Non Bank Finance Companies). This guideline is a "God" sent answer to the long prayer of Indian Credit Card users, who were at the mercy of issuers. The guideline addresses several of consumer pain points:

  1. Credit Limits cannot be enhanced unilaterally by the issuer
  2. "No" to Unsolicited Card/Charges/Loans
  3. Every customer complaint will have to be issued a docket number
  4. Issuers should not make any intimidating or harassing collection calls to customers
  5. Banks should also maintain a Do Not Call Registry (DNCR) containing phone numbers of customers as well as non-customers. People can register to this through website or offline. DNCR should be set up within two months
  6. Method of calculation of rates for interest, late fee with clear examples to be published in their websites

I have had a mixed (Good and Bad) interactions with Banks on Credit Cards. If the above guidelines are followed in letter & spirit by the issuers, I can certainly say Indian Card industry will become a role model to the world.

Related Post: Housing Loans – Asset or Liability?

 
Saturday, October 08, 2005

Last week there was a post by Jon Box in his blog about Microsoft adding jobs in India. Jon is one of my fellow Microsoft Regional Directors, from Memphis USA. I sent him back a detailed reply by email on how I feel on this important issue. Here it is:

As someone who has been running an Indian IT Services Company for last several years and with sizable portion of my business coming from USA, these are my comments.

In business the first rule of thumb – your returns are more or less dependent on your risks. You don’t take risk you don’t make money, its that simple. In fact nothing could be more risky than to resign your job and start a company. After the risk are the following

  1. To identify a need (a.k.a Innovation/Invention)
  2. Develop a Product (a.k.a. Manufacture)
  3. Package the Product and Market them
  4. Sell the Product

India/China currently does only 1 of the 5 steps in a business – Manufacture. If someone in US is worrying about us, either he/she doesn’t understand what it is to be an American or lacks seriously in self-confidence.

Risk and Products
Today Microsoft or IBM makes several times more money more than the 3 Top Indian IT Services company (TCS, Wipro and Infosys) put together. Put together they will have same number of employees as Microsoft. It might never be possible for them to overtake Microsoft or IBM. Why?. Because MS/IBM are products company – a company who’s core assets are its products which is based on IP (Intellectual Property) and Patents.

Compare this to India, though Indian Engineers are considered high in Software, we don’t have one product that is seen in store shelves around the world. The reason is simple, to develop Products and to market them requires huge capital investments which simply doesn’t exist in India. Even if you have deep pockets, the chance of a product succeeding is very low – the risks are very high. We Indians traditionally like to play it safe and we like the safe Government Jobs. We never venture into the unknown. This is the reason why Asians (including India and Japan) save money. We keep it as Gold Ornaments (Never enjoy them by wearing it but safeguard it against theft by keeping it in Bank Safe Lockers) and Bank Savings. A common man (Woman) in India investing in Stock Market is unknown till very recently. The Silicon Valley and its VC/Angel funding culture has no parallel in India. In India (until very recently) the only funding known was Debt. Equity funding was being restricted to handful of stories.

Contrast this to US. USA is certainly the land of opportunity – Opportunity created due to the risk taken by Entrepreneurs and equally by common man. I always admire at the American (and of course the Europeans) zeal for exploring and travel. To drive from East to West Coast in search of opportunity and settle down there is a everyday common story in US. It is unimaginable for me to drive down even 600 miles and settle down in my neighboring state – nevertheless go to the other end of India.

If American Companies don’t innovate/invent with their money eared, certainly the Indian Companies (with their newly earned money) will innovate and we will reap the benefits of that invention for next 2 decades.

Packaging and Marketing
Next to risk & innovation it is packaging and marketing that I consider to be core strengths of US. In fact, at my company we hired at high rates and outsourced our marketing campaign to a US Agency – because we realized it will be cheaper to do it right the first way, rather than waste money on iterations with cheaper clones.

These are the reasons why in the world today you see Coke, Pepsi and Mc Donalds everywhere.

In fact, when Coke and Pepsi came to India a decade+ back – they killed all the local Soft Drink manufactures. One of the Indian’s who soled all his bottling plants & brands to Coke; created a new empire from scratch – bottled water. In India nobody would have dreamt of buying Water, but this guy saw a need when people earn more they will demand safe drinking water, and local bodies in India will never get to give it for long. He created “Bisleri” bottled water. Pepsi was forced to follow it up with Aquafina. 

[Though I am not writing on this, examples like this could turn out to be answers for India as well, on how to face “China” dimension. For example China makes finished goods at prices lower than it cost to even produce 1/4th the raw materials in some products. This is true even for India-China comparison].

Summary
Apart from these, in my experience I have seen Americans to be excellent Managers (and Japanese for their keen eye on perfection). I found it amazing on their capabilities to methodically plan and execute things.

In the new economy; companies that innovate, that take risk, that package well, succeed. Companies that don’t do it  - perish. It is same whether it is for US or India or China. It is also same for Individuals because Individuals are part of companies (in the work force).

So in summary if your Angry Coder is losing job, then the company they work for is not innovating (or) He/She is not innovating to go high in the value chain to become managers and manage the outsourced projects that have gone to India or China or to Eastern Europe. Needless to say managerial jobs will earn twice/thrice of their present income. Wow, I didn’t realize I will be ending this with a positive note like this!

 
Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Last Friday, I was chatting with a friend of mine, who works for a Software MNC in Chennai. Whenever we get a chance, it is common for us to share with each other our plans for future and seek other person’s advice and feedback.
 
A little background about him, before I continue: He is from a typical Indian middle class family and after a decade of career progression at various Software firms, he is now settled down in life - married, has a kid and a good paying job. 
 
Our topic of the day was his recent decision to buy a house – certainly a right time to do it. The house was a 3-bedroom flat in the heart of Chennai and will cost him nearly Rs.50 Lakhs (which may be 3 to 5 years of his pay). He is going for a housing loan of nearly 90% of the property value. Considering normal household & living expenses the loan is likely to be repaid with in a 15 year tenure.
 
I started sharing with him what I think are very important points to understand about the impact of these loans, especially housing loans which have a long duration and huge value at stake. We normally go for buying a house thinking that a house is a great asset for the family. Even if an unfortunate event happens to the earning member, the house will provide a basic roof to the family. This is where many Indian Households miss to appreciate the fact that a house (or a car) when bought in loan is not ours (not an asset) until we have fully paid the loan. Till the point we are regularly paying the dues it certainly is an asset, but the minute we default (due to any reason, death or even sick bedridden due to an accident) it becomes a liability. An example will help here, Mr.X who has a wife (housewife), two school going children and he lives in a nucleus family. He buys a car at Rs.7 Lakhs for a three year tenure. In one year, he has repaid Rs.3 Lakhs and now owes only Rs.4 Lakhs. At this point, he meets a fatal accident and his wife is now left not with an asset of Rs.3 Lakhs (nowadays car value diminish greatly) but a liability of Rs.4 Lakhs. So not only the diseased family has lost the earning member, but also burdened with a huge/impossible outstanding to pay.
Coming back to my friends’ discussion, I advised him first to go for a life insurance for a value greater than the housing loan value. Since he has already invested in the house which will give him future returns, the life insurance should be a simple life cover with no returns. This way his premium for the insurance will be extremely low (few thousands per year) and it won’t be a double burden for him. There are some good single premium policies available now that will fit this need perfectly. This insurance should be his personal policy taken by him. This is because though his company has a good cover for his life, that will cease to exist if he loses his job (actually only at this time, the insurance becomes more significant).

On the loan front, he was considering finalizing the housing loan with a foreign bank who offered him 7% interest rate, his other offer was from a nationalized bank at 7.75%. I advised him to go with the nationalized bank. My argument was not on basis of any patriotic reasons, but because of my experiences over the years.

  1. The fine prints of a foreign bank (and also many of the private banks) are generally too difficult for a normal person to comprehend fully. With a nationalized bank, you will have the comfort factor that they represent “Government of India” and they will be sympathetic to your requests.
  2. Many times, these banks try all the tricks of the trade, when it comes to collections. Their use of so-called “collection agents” are legendary. Though most of the times the Foreign Banks are forced to do this, because of their huge defaults; that alone cannot be an excuse in a democratic country. Many times, these are used, purely circumventing the law of the land.
  3. Also foreign banks lacks customer relationship (or what I call human touch). Though they have huge IT investments on the best CRM products, there is no one to talk to, when you need help. The fantastic personal attention, caring phone calls, stop the minute you sign on the dotted lines. After this it becomes “so called” system driven. For everything you have to call hundred different numbers and repeat the same problem statement to two hundred people.
  4. You might say that I am missing about the Relationship managers that these banks proudly advertise about. These are normally available only for big corporates’ and my experience here again has not been good. In reality even when they are available they don't help much because their knowledge on banking is extremely limited. They repeat verbatim what is their on the computer screens (which you would most of the time have already read from their secure/private website). For every query apart from the routine credit/debit, they have to check with their respective departments and this takes normally several days. Also the attrition/churn rates in these banks are extremely high, so within a year, you will be having at least a minimum of two to three relationship managers.
In contrast to this, every nationalized bank branch has a manager, who is well trained (qualified) on banking rules and business. For someone to come to a manager level in a nationalized bank, it would have taken atleast two decades of banking experience, during which they would have seen different people and different scenerios. In other words, they are not fresh out of college, learning now on the job. In almost all the branches (especially more so with branches in residential areas) the manager or deputy manager is easily accessible and tries their level best to accommodate your requests. Each manager serves in a bank at least for a period of two years, before getting transferred; and the clerical staffs (who you deal mostly) stay in each branch for even longer durations.
Having said the above, Foreign/Private banks are good too, when all you want is a Saving Accounts with good ATM reach and state of the art online presence. Above all they are good if most of the time your wants are simple products/service which can be self-serviced. In other words, if you have needs that hardly require a human being at the other side, these banks definitely excel nationalized banks.
 
Finally, coming back to my friends' story; I have convinced him enough that he is currently reconsidering all his options thoroughly.
  
Self Service ATM & Web
 
 
Sunday, March 13, 2005

On Friday, Forbes announced its annual “The world's Billionaries”. It was very heartening to find Indian Born Lakshmi Mittal rated as the 3rd Richest Man in the world. As an Indian, what is more encouraging are the facts Mittal has done it in an extremely competitive Steel industry, he has built the group completely out of his sweat (he and his family owns 97% of the group - which means he didn't have any major external investments) and finally he operates by aquiring sick units (in far-flung places in earth) and turning them profitable.

Great work Mittal; You have made every Indian proud!.

The forbes website also lists India's Richest as a slideshow here

 
Sunday, March 06, 2005

Like millions of Indians, I listened to budget speech of Finance Minister P.Chidambaram on the 28th of Feb. It was a well prepared speech and the FM should be congratulated for his efforts given the compulsion of coalition politics. There has been enough media attention on the last one week on the good things (which I should say definitely is lot), so I don’t want to repeat it. Instead I want to focus on what was not good.

It is not to say that this was a bad job, but this was the “Dream Team”, the dream of several crores of Indians. This team could have certainly done a better job. Some of the tough issues that plague Indian Tax System and Indian Inc. is unresolved. If it cannot be treated with urgent surgeries by this team, it raises the question then “Who can?”.

As an Entrepreneur and a Tax Payer these are some of the issues I would have liked him to have done:

1) I liked his promise of simplifying the tax laws. He has removed two Income Tax exemptions, this idea should have been extended across the board and many such archaic exemptions and surcharges should have been removed.

Reform and Simplify the complex/archaic Indian Tax laws (Customs Duty, Excise, Income Tax & even the decade old Service Tax).  For example, if you have check whether a particular service is taxable or exempted, you need to go all the way back to 1994 (or so) when the Service Tax was introduced and then follow each years amendments.

Though the FM has subsequently announced a comprehensive look at Income Tax Laws is on the cards and a new simplified law is expected by Calendar Year End. He is currently talking about reform only for Income Tax law, I am not sure why he is doing this piecemeal, it should be across the board, covering all the tax laws of this country.

2) Related to my previous point is that the single largest contribution to litigation is the ambiguity of the tax laws. This is a huge problem for the Indian government which results in lower tax collections. Even this years’ budget speech has its own share of these “Unclear” texts – the fringe benefit tax is so vague that it currently looks like a wide open avenue for Tax Officials to impose tax at will for any corporate expenditure.

The only logical reason I can think of for these ambiguous tax laws, is it benefits Indian Bureaucracy. As much as the great Indian officialdom manages to have tax texts that are vague, it increases the chances of different interpretations. For example, the Service Tax law can be interpreted so differently -  that for the same service, in one region the officer might decide it is taxable. In another region the officer can be influenced (and succeeded) to interpret it in a way the service becomes tax-free!. 

3) The Indian Labour laws is supposed to be dating back to early british rule. No future government had the courage to enact modern labour laws that benefit all the stake-holders. If India has to compete with China and increase its world trade share from sub-one percentage, this is top priority. FM and PM is deafeningly silent in this major issue of Indian Inc. He should have also introduced a roadmap towards moving to a comprehensive Social Security Plan (like in the western nations).

4) The Golden Quadrilateral, the South-North Corridor, East-West Corridor Road Infrastructure was one of the good things from Government of India in this decade. FM is silent on the report card of this work. He has promised more road projects, but his budget fund allocations doesn’t map convincingly on this.

One of the reasons, USA is the world biggest economy; I believe is got to do with its great Road Infrastructure.  I was told that during the recession periods of 1960s and 70s, US government had the vision of building these massive road projects – which provided both short/medium term employment and long-term free movement of goods and people.

Maybe, these works are progressing well and FM has actually allocated necessary funds,  which a novice like me is missing. But I just hope this super important project is not left to die, just because it was brought in by previous NDA government.

5) Next is the now infamous “Cash Withdrawal Tax”. Though I liked the idea when I first heard it – the idea of taxing 0.1% whenever you withdraw cash more than Rs.10000 on a single day, sounds ill-thought now. The claimed spirit behind the tax is laudable, that in India the parallel economy is multi-fold of the regulated economy and huge cash transactions are the biggest reason why it is flourishing. 

In my opinion the reason this is happening is that almost any transaction in India, could be done with “Cash” and almost all merchants (including Foreign Banks and MNCs) encourage “Cash”. Managing Cash is always risky and cumbersome; Cheques, Cards and Demand-Drafts are easier to manage and extremely safe. FM should have done more to educate users on these advantages, increase their usage, a Credit Card/Cheque transaction tax benefit could have been given. He could have also taxed the Merchants/Corporate who handle huge cash transactions. What I am saying is, don’t tax the withdrawal of cash, but plug the areas where cash can be used/accepted.

And the other bad news about this tax is that it is not Tax Deducted at Source (TDS). Meaning the tax you pay for cash withdrawals, cannot be adjusted against your regular Income Tax dues. This is another tax and additional burden. So if you are an honest Indian tax payer, FM wants to penalize/double-tax you. On the contrary, if you manage all your income in the parallel economy (not depositing in banking channel and not paying Income Tax), FM lets you go Scott-free. This is counter-productive.

6) There was no effort made to widen tax net. In India, only a minuscule portion of people pay/file Income Tax.

In the last decade, FM helped to increase this marginally by his innovative (at that time) 1/6 scheme – whereby if you happen to fall under one of the 6 categories (Foreign Travel in last 12 months, own a mobile phone/credit card/car, etc), even if you are not liable to pay tax, you need to file income tax returns. What was needed now was such new (out-of-box) thinking. For some reason, FM’s team severely lacked it this time. 

7) Though security is of top-concern for India, FM should have reduced his Defense expenditure. This would have certainly been reciprocated from Pakistan’s side. Both our nations need more food on our people’s plate, rather than more bullets. Instead of more spending, he should have aimed at plugging the leakages in defense purchases comprehensively. He should have increased his ROI on defense capital.

8) Tax the agriculture income. Agriculture income still dominates the Indian GDP and all of them go tax free due to existing laws. FM should have taxed the agriculture income at a low rate of say 10% for people who earn more than a fixed amount (say Rs.10 Lakhs and above).

9) Finally, increased his automation (IT) expenditure – you should have expected this from me, being a software guy :-).

We urgently need state of the art systems to manage our Tax Network and avoid frauds. The fraudulent TDS Certificates (where bogus TDS certificates are shown as tax paid) is one of the big loopholes in Indian Tax system. I was told that ICICI Bank alone, every month dumps truckloads of paper in every Income Tax Circle. How on earth, the department matches this humanly impossible puzzle, is a big mystery.

Like in the US SSN (Social Security Number), in India we need urgently one single number to identify a citizen/corporate – we now have tens (if not hundreds). FM hasn’t outlined a good roadmap towards this need.

Being the world’s software powerhouse, the government should have demonstrated to the world, bold/innovative e-governance initiatives. It had the opportunity, but not the will.

 
Sunday, July 11, 2004

Last week India Budget 2004 was presented by Hon'ble Finance Minister P.Chidambaram in the parliament. The budget had promised to improve the reach of Education, making education compulsory for atleast 8 years for every child and guarantees 100 days of minimum employment for one person in every family. Though it is unclear how the government is going to ensure these to happen, the focus on these two important items is laudable. It has announced VAT will finally be implemented from 1st of April 2005, this will pave way to avoid double taxation in many areas. A huge investment announcement for a Desalination plant in Chennai for solving the metropolis water problem is also a welcome move.

Last year, the central government has made record collections in Service Tax, riding on that the budget has increased the tax from 8% to 10%. Though the planned expenses on that by government for education is good, the increase is going to hurt small and medium size service providers. Apart from this, I would have loved to see a mention in the budget for Vajpayees' favourite Golden Quadrilateral road project, which will link all the metropolis in the country and save country tons of foreign exchange in Oil savings.

Impact of Union Budgets' in India
Though in India, Union Government Taxes control majority of prices and peoples life, the impact of a budget has been reducing. The reason being in the last few years, the Income Tax has been more or less left unchanged at 30%, Oil prices has been decentralized and not controlled by Govt., but my major Oil companies and most of the indirect taxes have been coming down. These have been possible because of liberalization and globalization which has brought in a stability in tax rates.

You can view the webcast of the budget speech and the complete budget of 2004 and previous years, in the India Budget site.

 
Friday, July 02, 2004

In my earlier post “Indian Stock Market - Both Sides”, I had written about how Indian companies are venturing into Sri Lanka and doing well. This seems to be picking pace now.

One of the good examples is in Dairy. Last time I visited Sri Lanka and happen to buy Milk/Yoghurt, I was surprised to see only Nestle (from Europe) and New Zealand Dairy products. India with its huge Dairy capacity and proximity to Sri Lanka doesn't have any of its dairy products in Sri Lankan stores. All this is going to change, with Indian Dairy Giant Mr.Kurian's Amul setting up soon its operations in Sri Lanka. Initially they will source the products from India, but sooner Amul is planning to setup a complete Co-operative chain in the models of Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd (GCMMF) and transfer control to Sri Lankans.

On the other side, Sri Lankans are also expanding to India. One example, is Sri Lanka's famous Maliban Biscuits coming into India in a big way. Another example is seen in Chennai's biggest Mall (Spencer Plaza), in the new 3rd phase, Sri Lanka Export Development Board has setup “Sri Lanka Trade Centre - Chennai” with several participating Sri Lankan's speciality stores including Confectionaries, Flowers, Toys, FootWear and more.

All these are still tip of the iceberg, I am sure in the next few years there is going to be a windfall in the bilateral trade between the two countries.

 
Saturday, May 22, 2004

Finally the political drama and suspense came to an end today evening, with Dr.Manmohan Singh becoming India's 13th Prime Minister. While I feel happy that India is headed by a senior, experienced Bureaucrat turned Politician, his Jumbo cabinet of 68 Ministers leaves much unsaid.

The reality of coalition governments in India forces the need for these Jumbo sized cabinets. Some time back, there was only a talk to enact a law to restrict the cabinet size to say 10% of the total number of members of Parliament/Assembly. I feel it is high time we enact a law to restrict to 5%. Having said this, there is also an easier alternative; We the People of India instead of giving fragmanted verdicts favouring regional parties for Parliament, should vote decisively in favour of any one of the National Parties.

The country looks to Dr.Singh for lot of deliverables. Personally I think the priorities should be

  • Expansion of Economy (which in turn will mean more Industries and Jobs) throught Privatization and other measures
  • Continue and give more thrust to Goldern Quadrilateral and National Highway schemes started by earlier Mr.Vajpayee's government. One of the reasons why economy grow in USA in 20th century, I feel is because of excellent Interstate and Freeways. There was free movement of material, people, idea, money, which resulted in massive expansion of economy
  • Improvements in Agriculture sector
  • Implementing Value Added Tax, simplify all indirect taxes including Service Tax, Excise Duty & Customs
  • Enact any pending laws which will further encourage free trade and competition in Telecom, Insurance & Banking
  • More trade cooperation with all neighbouring nations including Pakistan, Sri Lanka and to Singapore & Malaysia
  • Finally, continue the benefits given to Software and increase the benefits given to Hardware industry.

 

 
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Yesterday Indian Stock Market saw the biggest plunge in a decade. The BSE started the day by a near 20% fall and ending with an overall about 10-12% fall.

I strongly feel the markets’ over reacted yesterday. Only two valid reasons could be attributed to the southward sentiment – One being the change in government supported by Left Parties and the other being the rise in Worldwide Oil Prices. But both are not sudden happenings, indications for both have been there for over a week now.

Today the markets have done better, gaining over half of the loss. One of the reasons attributed to this being Dr.Manmohan Singh’s likely selection as Prime Minister.

In the long term, I see the Indian markets to do very well. The fundamentals of the Indian Economy are good, GDP is raising, Exports are growing, Forex Reserves are booming & Indian Enterprises are reaching out to other markets. Even in my recent trip to Sri Lanka I saw good indications for this. In many places across the capital ‘Colombo’ I could see recognizable Indian Brands. This included the PSU giant Indian Oil in its incarnation as IOC Lanka, South Indian Motorbike manufacturer TVS Motors & Indian Scooter Producer Bajaj for their 3-wheelers. Not only these brands were visibly present in the Island nation, they were also doing well and were commanding good brand image, market share and quality perception.

Overall I am confident that the (Indian) tiger has woken up; and the world is certainly ready for it!

 
Thursday, April 08, 2004

Recently one of my friends pointed me to an article in Wired about India’s growing dominance in the IT Outsourcing Arena. It was written by Daniel H.Pink, the White House Speechwriter to former US Vice-President Al Gore. Pink is also the Author of a bestseller “Free Agent Nation”. Here Pink writes about his first hand experience from both side of the world. He captures well the feelings of the disturbed White Collar Americans as well as the new Indian Middle class. Here is the full article: “The New Face of the Silicon Age”, you can also hear to Pink’s Interview which went live in CNNfn.

I especially liked the way he closed the article by quoting from Gita. The Gita opens with two armies facing each other across a field of battle. One of the warriors is Prince Arjuna, who discovers that his charioteer is the Hindu god Krishna. The book relates the dialog between the god and the warrior - about how to survive and, more important, how to live. One stanza seems apt in this moment of fear and discontent. "Your very nature will drive you to fight," Lord Krishna tells Arjuna. "The only choice is what to fight against".

Let me write in a different blog, on what I personally feel about Outsourcing.

 
Friday, March 12, 2004

Everywhere you turn now, your hear about Outsourcing, India Shining & India Dreams. Being a election year in USA, you also hear about the backlash, the pros and the cons.

Today Ranga pointed me to an interesting article in Express India titled “Outsourcing: A few years ago nobody in US wanted to talk to Indians, now they are eager

It is a well written, neutral piece (hard to find these days!). I liked especially the closing quote, given here verbatim:

As one Indian exec put it to me: The Americans’ self-image that this tech thing was their private preserve is over. This is a ‘‘wake-up call’’ for US workers to redouble their efforts at education and research. If they do that, he said, it will spur ‘‘a whole new cycle of innovation, and we’ll both win. If we each pull down our shutters, we will both lose.’’